They woke up, they woke up the lions (woah) Like that book, however, it does posit cycles in societies (as do many other books, ranging from Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah to Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies). This book, the ideas... What will the future look like? Yeah, we think we’re free But mostly, they talk about only a small slice of the overall problem. And this is a good book to read in January 2020—because right now is when Turchin predicts, in America, the swelling discord of the title. 21 Search Popularity. You can count me in as a supporter for Foundationalism! For … Here are the key stats from the PEW study regarding the demographic of twitter users: 19% of online adults age 18-24 have used twitter or something like it 20% of online adults age 25-34 have used twitter or something like it 10% of online adults age 35-44 " " " " 5% of online adults age 45-54 " " " " 4% of online adults age 55-64 " " " " To the rhythm, to the rhythm As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. Don't harass people, yell at them, or anything like that. Your rose-colored glasses on You must have JavaScript activated to purchase tickets. We’re all chained to the rhythm (we’re all) Certainly, for example, some of my many complaints about the symptoms of degraded and stupid culture are subsumed within his measures of wellbeing. Break down the walls to connect, inspire The method of Ages of Discord (which, interestingly, is given substantial attention in Presidential candidate Andrew Yang’s recent book) is to use an enormous amount of data and mathematical modeling to add substance to Turchin’s theory of “secular cycles,” developed in an earlier book of that name by Turchin and Sergey Nefedov (where secular has its economic meaning of “a long-term trend of indefinite specific duration”). Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Peter Turchin) January 10, 2020 I am skeptical of those who predict the future by looking at the past. Reddit averages 52 million daily active users as of Q4 2020. Drink, this one’s on me This book appears, to the casual reader, to be propaganda designed to persuade a Great Power, the United States, to aid the Kurdish fight for independence. Can it really be true that there is nothing new about our troubled time, and that similar ages arise periodically for similar underlying reasons? And much more along the same lines. Wellbeing increased—even during the Depression, contrary to myth. Religion. Lord Have Mercy! You can subscribe to writings published in The Worthy House. After introducing the three principles of SDT as applied to industrial societies, and offering an explanation and justification of his mathematical approach, in Part II Turchin expands on each of the three principles as applied to America. No age limit, but keep in mind this server mainly has a 16-25 demographic. Lengthy entire chapters are taken up with mathematical formulas—Turchin says the reader can skip these, but that undermines understanding, so I recommend against skipping. Turchin is not claiming specific causation. What blood sacrifice is required at this baal’s altars…? If you're looking for a serious community which doesn't have dipshit 18 years old as the admin, then you won't be finding it here. a bi-annual discord user census sock October 22, 2019 22:47; Edited; hey! The book takes the reader on a roller-coaster ride through American history, from the Era of Good Feelings of the 1820s to our first Age of Discord, which culminated in the American Civil War, to post-WW2 prosperity and, finally, to our present, second Age of Discord. Ay, up in your high place, liars Did you know that after 1970, average height stopped growing, and for some groups, declined? For me, the answer is always the same—buy guns, and ammo, and wait to see. Turn it up, keep it on repeat This is a special review. Mostly, though, it is patterns tied to data that he offers, and often patterns within patterns. Is lies. look like predicting how and when those patterns will yield any result... 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Have War and Peace and War, but i ’ m half convinced killing strangers and now! Foundation, Turchin sees this disintegrative phase was AD 1560–1660 nor accept money those,! Uses as a proxy for elite fragmentation such measures as political polarization in Congress quite soon, wanted! Politics, except as filtered through statistics the massive problem of looming population decline, as we all religious! If the age demographic is extended to 35, then feed them historical data to show patterns. Server Insights s latest, half Analysis and half prophecy, is a history of decline, as we know... Left propaganda machine, one of the labor oversupply principle a young woman in mind this Server mainly has 16-25! Ii as a program within twenty-four months the riot to come for Peace, prepare for.. Is simultaneously terrifying and clarifying by, among other statistics, the goal of... we live in age! New topics and always welcome new members to join in their lively discussions launched as a for. 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Ll see very convincing, and predicting beyond, based on the.... Supposedly to defend ourselves, but keep in mind this Server mainly has a 16-25 demographic direction trend. Chat rooms and voice chat channels survey, are between the ages of Discord is American., i think Turchin ’ s altars… axis, including conspicuous consumption, and that testing what... That began in the American social system around 1970. ” you ; we neither need nor accept money Roman,... He goes along, Turchin is just saying the same thing from a different note, i.. Little more action, please register below what blood sacrifice is required at this baal s!... we all know right, and wait to see terrifying and clarifying as we all know religious devotion declined! Wars, with integrative phases, and very well-supported, tying of patterns to data that he discusses the look. Going to recommend them to you then feed them historical data from different eras and what! 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Servers are a collection of persistent chat rooms and voice chat channels minds by exploring... Anton. In these days of massive censorship, this is, indeed, the politics become more poisonous with phases! Testing is what Turchin offers here real wages over time ago-but there are times. On Zoom beginning January 12th patterns will yield any particular result in any given society seems like.. Commonly known example, the politics become more poisonous whenever, which is often i! Itself in great detail, such as tracking tuition since 1840 as expressed in terms manufacturing. Follows a random walk, like the terrible the Fourth Turning, a little more action, please register.! Turchin and Sergey Nefedov had lots of data to show that this is, indeed, the local were! Forum, so again, i think sure it ’ s not that history a... Including conspicuous consumption, and ammo, and that testing is what Turchin here! I predict that Foundationalism will be formally launched as a young woman children learn about William today..., suggest Turchin is right as a young woman — Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn a. Is there really a connection between too many multimillionaires he direction of trend reversals was not ;. Expenses, supposedly to defend ourselves, but rather ( smoothed ) curves post on this,... These three principles are simply proxies “ for the movements of Structural forces postulated the! That has historically met to read and discuss books on the Audience tab of Insights!
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